Week 1 slate
Week 1Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETBryant-Denny Stadium, TuscaloosaFinal
East Carolina
ECU · 0-0
10
Final
#13Alabama
ALA · 0-0
48
Final
Model called it
Spread
ALA -27.5
Moneyline
ECU +2000 / ALA -6500
Total
O/U 52.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
ECU 10 / ALA 48
From the booth
The model favored ALA to win, and the call landed.
Alabama's got this one locked down, folks. The Crimson Tide are sitting at 96 percent to win, and the Vegas market is telling us everything we need to know here, with Alabama favored by 27 and a half points. East Carolina's got a slight edge in offensive efficiency over their last five games, but that's not nearly enough to overcome the talent gap and the number that Vegas has set. This is Alabama's game to lose, plain and simple.
Why the model leans ALA
- Favors Alabama: ALA+0.07Vegas point spread
- Favors Alabama: ALA+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors East Carolina: ECU+0.00Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games