Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ETTiger Stadium (LA), Baton RougePrime timeConference gameFinal
#23Texas A&M
TA&M · 2-1
6
Final
#10LSU
LSU · 2-1
35
Final
Model called it
Spread
LSU -8.5
Moneyline
TA&M +275 / LSU -345
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Tiger Stadium (LA) · Baton Rouge
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
Final
TA&M 6 / LSU 35
From the booth
The model favored LSU to win, and the call landed.
LSU's got this one looking like a strong favorite here, sitting at 73 percent win probability, and the Tigers have some real advantages working in their favor. Vegas has them laying eight and a half, the betting market likes them, and there's a ranked advantage with LSU at ten compared to A&M at twenty three. Now, Texas A&M's been a little stingy defensively over the last five games, so the Aggies aren't coming in without a pulse, but that's not enough to overcome the home field and the overall talent edge here.
Why the model leans LSU
- Favors LSU: LSU+0.06Vegas point spread
- Favors Texas A&M: TA&M+0.05Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors LSU: LSUBetting-market win probability