Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ETAmon G. Carter Stadium, Fort WorthPrime timeFinal
Arkansas State
ARST · 1-1
7
Final
TCU
TCU · 1-1
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
TCU -19.5
Moneyline
ARST +740 / TCU -1250
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET
Final
ARST 7 / TCU 31
From the booth
The model favored TCU to win, and the call landed.
TCU's got this one locked up, folks. The Horned Frogs are sitting at 92 percent win probability, and Vegas has them as nearly a three-touchdown favorite at 19.5 points. The betting market's backing that narrative too, and while Arkansas State's shown a little fight in their last five games, that's not nearly enough to overcome the talent gap and home field advantage here in Fort Worth.
Why the model leans TCU
- Favors TCU: TCU+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors TCU: TCU+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Arkansas State: ARST+0.01Point differential, last 5 games