Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ETFBC Mortgage Stadium, OrlandoPrime timeFinal
Georgia State
GAST · 2-0
30
Final
UCF
UCF · 1-1
44
Final
Model called it
Spread
UCF -17.5
Moneyline
GAST +720 / UCF -1200
Total
O/U 50.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Final
GAST 30 / UCF 44
From the booth
The model favored UCF to win, and the call landed.
UCF's got this one locked up at 91 percent to win, and the Vegas market is singing the same song with them as a 17 and a half point favorite. The Knights are the better team here, plain and simple, and that's what both the spread and the pregame models are telling us. Georgia State comes in as a significant underdog at just 9 percent, and they're gonna need a whole lot of things to go right to pull off the upset.
Why the model leans UCF
- Favors UCF: UCF+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors UCF: UCF+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Georgia State: GAST+0.01Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games