Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ETJack Trice Stadium, AmesConference gameFinal
#15Utah
UTAH · 3-0
31
Final
Iowa State
ISU · 2-1
17
Final
Model called it
Spread
UTAH -7.5
Moneyline
UTAH -325 / ISU +260
Total
O/U 47.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Jack Trice Stadium · Ames
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
UTAH 31 / ISU 17
From the booth
The model favored UTAH to win, and the call landed.
Utah's got this one locked down at 76 percent, and here's why: the Utes are favored by a touchdown and a half, they've got the better Elo rating, and their defense has been stingy over the last month. Iowa State's fighting from behind in a Big 12 battle where the Vegas money and the betting markets have both made up their minds, leaving the Cyclones just a quarter of the pie at 24 percent.
Why the model leans UTAH
- Favors Utah: UTAH+0.17Vegas point spread
- Favors Utah: UTAH+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Utah: UTAH+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge