Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ETGerald J. Ford Stadium, University ParkFinal
UC Davis
UCD · 0-0
10
Final
#17SMU
SMU · 1-0
56
Final
Model called it
Spread
SMU -29.5
Moneyline
UCD +1600 / SMU -4000
Total
O/U 58.5
Weather
99.3°F · 11.5 mph · Clear
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET
Final
UCD 10 / SMU 56
From the booth
The model favored SMU to win, and the call landed.
SMU's got this one locked down at 99 percent, and it's not even close. The Mustangs are sitting 29 and a half points ahead on the Vegas board, they've got the massive talent advantage in the Elo ratings, and UC Davis is coming in as an unranked FCS squad that just doesn't have the firepower to compete at this level. This is about as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get on a college football Saturday.
Why the model leans SMU
- Favors SMU: SMU+0.03Vegas point spread
- Favors SMU: SMU+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors SMU: SMU+0.00Team rating (Elo) edge