From the booth

The model favored CAL to win, and the call landed.

Cal's got this one locked up at 99 percent, and it's not even close. The Bears are getting the massive 58 and a half point spread at home, the betting market agrees they're heavily favored, and they've got a clear edge in overall team strength. Wagner's a significant step down in competition here, and frankly, this looks like a mismatch on paper. You're looking at a workout for the home team rather than a ballgame.