Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETCarter-Finley Stadium, RaleighConference gameFinal
Louisville
LOU · 2-2
28
Final
NC State
NCSU · 2-2
31
Final
Model missed
Spread
LOU -3
Moneyline
LOU -166 / NCSU +140
Total
O/U 57.5
Weather
76.8°F · 10 mph · Overcast
Venue
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
LOU 28 / NCSU 31
From the booth
The model favored LOU to win, and the call missed.
NC State just beat App State 41-31 at home, but Louisville comes in favored by 3 despite losing to Wake Forest 30-27. The model likes the Cardinals at 54%, leaning on their offensive efficiency and point differential advantages. Both teams are 2-2, but the market and the model see Louisville pulling away on the road.
Why the model leans LOU
- Favors Louisville: LOU+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Louisville: LOU+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Louisville: LOU+0.01Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games