Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETKenan Stadium, Chapel HillFinal
#3Notre Dame
ND · 4-0
37
Final
North Carolina
UNC · 2-1
26
Final
Model called it
Spread
ND -21
Moneyline
ND -1800 / UNC +1000
Total
O/U 46.5
Weather
75.4°F · 9.5 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
ND 37 / UNC 26
From the booth
The model favored ND to win, and the call landed.
Notre Dame rolls into Chapel Hill unbeaten and ranked 3rd, facing a Tar Heels team still finding its footing after a loss to Clemson. The Fighting Irish are explosive on offense, averaging 42.7 points over their last 3, while holding opponents to just 6.7. Our model backs Notre Dame at 93%, well aligned with a market laying 21 points.
Why the model leans ND
- Favors Notre Dame: ND+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Notre Dame: ND+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Notre Dame: ND+0.02Team rating (Elo) edge