Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ETMichigan Stadium, Ann ArborConference gameFinal
#17Iowa
IOWA · 3-0
20
Final
#18Michigan
MICH · 3-0
19
Final
Model missed
Spread
MICH -5.5
Moneyline
IOWA +180 / MICH -218
Total
O/U 38.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
IOWA 20 / MICH 19
From the booth
The model favored MICH to win, and the call missed.
Michigan comes in favored here at 64 percent, and the smart money agrees, with the betting market backing the Wolverines at home in Ann Arbor. This is about as tight as it gets though, remember, Iowa's ranked just one spot below Michigan in the AP poll and actually has a slight edge in team rating. The Wolverines get the home field advantage and Vegas is backing them with a five and a half point spread, but don't sleep on a hungry Hawkeyes squad that's been tough to beat lately.
Why the model leans MICH
- Favors Michigan: MICH+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Michigan: MICH+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Iowa: IOWA+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge