Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), ChampaignConference gameFinal
Purdue
PUR · 1-3
24
Final
Illinois
ILL · 2-2
17
Final
Model missed
Spread
ILL -10.5
Moneyline
PUR +315 / ILL -410
Total
O/U 62.5
Weather
69.6°F · 8.1 mph · Clear
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · Champaign
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ET
Final
PUR 24 / ILL 17
From the booth
The model favored ILL to win, and the call missed.
Illinois hosts Purdue in a Big Ten matchup Saturday, coming off a blowout loss to Ohio State while the Boilermakers have dropped 3 straight. Our model favors the Fighting Illini at 72%, and the market agrees, laying 10.5 points. Illinois has been efficient on offense, and Purdue's defense has been a major liability this season.
Why the model leans ILL
- Favors Purdue: PUR+0.05Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Illinois: ILL+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Illinois: ILL+0.04Betting-market win probability