Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 12:30 PM ETCamp Randall Stadium, MadisonConference gameFinal
Michigan State
MSU · 2-2
3
Final
Wisconsin
WIS · 3-1
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
WIS -9.5
Moneyline
MSU +315 / WIS -410
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
58.1°F · 10.4 mph · Clear
Venue
Camp Randall Stadium · Madison
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 12:30 PM ET
Final
MSU 3 / WIS 31
From the booth
The model favored WIS to win, and the call landed.
Wisconsin rolls into Camp Randall on a 3-game winning streak, most recently taking down Penn State 24-20 on the road, while Michigan State has dropped 2 straight and got hammered by Nebraska 31-13 at home. The model backs the Badgers at 78%, slightly more confident than the market laying 9.5. Wisconsin's season-long strength and a defense holding opponents to 13.0 points over the last 3 games give the Badgers the edge here.
Why the model leans WIS
- Favors Wisconsin: WIS+0.06Vegas point spread
- Favors Wisconsin: WIS+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors Michigan State: MSUDefensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games