Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 12:30 PM ETRyan Field, EvanstonFinal
Ball State
BALL · 1-4
14
Final
Northwestern
NU · 3-1
45
Final
Model called it
Spread
NU -35.5
Moneyline
N/A
Total
O/U 52.5
Weather
71.1°F · 12.7 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Ryan Field · Evanston
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 12:30 PM ET
Final
BALL 14 / NU 45
From the booth
The model favored NU to win, and the call landed.
Northwestern hosts Ball State on Saturday, and this is a blowout setup. The Wildcats just demolished Penn State 34-13 at home and are averaging 32.7 points over their last 3, while the Cardinals have dropped 3 straight and are allowing nearly 39 per game. Our model has Northwestern at 98%, matching a market laying 35.5 points.
Why the model leans NU
- Favors Northwestern: NU+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Northwestern: NU+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Ball State: BALL+0.00Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games