Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ETBeaver Stadium, University ParkPrime timeConference gameFinal
#19USC
USC · 5-1
31
Final
Penn State
PSU · 3-2
23
Final
Model called it
Spread
PSU -1.5
Moneyline
USC +102 / PSU -122
Total
O/U 54.5
Weather
59.6°F · 5.5 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Beaver Stadium · University Park
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
Final
USC 31 / PSU 23
From the booth
The model favored USC to win, and the call landed.
Penn State stumbles into this Big Ten matchup losers of 2 straight, while USC rolls in at 5-1 off a 25-21 win over Washington. The model likes the Trojans at 54%, but the market disagrees, favoring the Nittany Lions by 1.5 points at home. USC's offensive efficiency over the last 5 games and overall team strength give them the edge here.
Why the model leans USC
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors Penn State: PSU+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors USC: USC+0.01Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games