Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 PM ETAlbertsons Stadium, BoisePrime timeFinal
South Dakota
SDAK · 0-0
24
Final
Boise State
BOIS · 1-1
38
Final
Model called it
Spread
BOIS -26.5
Moneyline
SDAK +1600 / BOIS -4500
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Albertsons Stadium · Boise
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 PM ET
Final
SDAK 24 / BOIS 38
From the booth
The model favored BOIS to win, and the call landed.
Boise State comes in as a massive favorite here, sitting at 98 percent to win this one, and you can see why when you look at the numbers. The Broncos have a significant edge across the board, from the Vegas spread of 26 and a half points to their superior team rating, and the betting market is completely aligned with that dominance. South Dakota's got a real mountain to climb at just 2 percent, but hey, that's why they play the games. This one figures to be a coronation for Boise State at home.
Why the model leans BOIS
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.03Vegas point spread
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Boise State: BOISTeam rating (Elo) edge