Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ETBobcat Stadium (TX), San MarcosFinal
Incarnate Word
UIW · 0-0
10
Final
Texas State
TXST · 1-2
63
Final
Model called it
Spread
TXST -30.5
Moneyline
UIW +1600 / TXST -4500
Total
O/U 65.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · San Marcos
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
Final
UIW 10 / TXST 63
From the booth
The model favored TXST to win, and the call landed.
Texas State's got this one locked down at 98 percent to win, and honestly, there's not much mystery here. The Bobcats are a massive 30 and a half point favorite on the Vegas line, and they've got the rating advantage across the board. Incarnate Word's a 2 percent dog just trying to survive, and Texas State's been running it pretty well on offense lately. This one figures to be over early.
Why the model leans TXST
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Texas State: TXST+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge