From the booth

The model favored TOL to win, and the call landed.

Toledo's got the edge here, sitting at 67 percent to win this one, and it makes sense when you look under the hood. The Rockets have momentum on their side with a plus point differential over their last five, and they're moving the ball more efficiently on offense than San Diego State. Vegas likes Toledo too, installing them as a 2.5-point favorite, and that's a spread that the numbers back up across the board.