Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ETWaldo Stadium, KalamazooFinal
Boise State
BOIS · 2-1
32
Final
Western Michigan
WMU · 2-1
7
Final
Model called it
Spread
BOIS -7.5
Moneyline
BOIS -285 / WMU +230
Total
O/U 49.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Waldo Stadium · Kalamazoo
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
BOIS 32 / WMU 7
From the booth
The model favored BOIS to win, and the call landed.
Boise State comes in as a heavy favorite here at 74 percent win probability, and you can see why. The Broncos have got that Elo rating edge, the Vegas line's got 'em favored by a touchdown and a half, and the betting market's all aboard the Boise train. Western Michigan's looking at just a 26 percent shot to pull off the upset at home, and they're gonna need to play a lot cleaner football than they have been over their last five games to make some noise here.
Why the model leans BOIS
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.18Vegas point spread
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge