Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ETValley Children's Stadium, FresnoPrime timeConference gameFinal
#23Boise State
BOIS · 4-1
38
Final
Fresno State
FRES · 4-1
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
BOIS -6.5
Moneyline
BOIS -275 / FRES +220
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
78.4°F · 7.8 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET
Final
BOIS 38 / FRES 31
From the booth
The model favored BOIS to win, and the call landed.
Pac-12 play Saturday night in Fresno, and both teams roll in at 4-1 with 4-game win streaks. The Broncos are ranked 23, averaging 35.7 points over their last 3 games, while the Bulldogs have been stingy on defense at 13.3 allowed. Boise State gets the nod at 69%, backed by its offensive efficiency and point differential over the last 5 games. The market agrees, laying 6.5 on the road.
Why the model leans BOIS
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.13Vegas point spread
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.11Betting-market win probability
- Favors Boise State: BOIS+0.01Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games