Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 6:00 PM ETReser Stadium, CorvallisConference gameFinal
San Diego State
SDSU · 2-3
14
Final
Oregon State
ORST · 3-2
66
Final
Model called it
Spread
ORST -15.5
Moneyline
SDSU +580 / ORST -880
Total
O/U 52.5
Weather
57.3°F · 4.2 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Reser Stadium · Corvallis
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 6:00 PM ET
Final
SDSU 14 / ORST 66
From the booth
The model favored ORST to win, and the call landed.
Oregon State rides a 3-game winning streak into Reser Stadium, most recently torching Colorado State 56-26 on the road. San Diego State limped past Texas State 31-29 at home and ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. The Beavers are our pick at 89%, well ahead of the market laying 15.5 points, and their point differential over the last 5 games backs it up.
Why the model leans ORST
- Favors Oregon State: ORST+0.10Vegas point spread
- Favors Oregon State: ORST+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors San Diego State: SDSU+0.02Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games