Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETFalcon Stadium, Colorado SpringsFinal
Navy
NAVY · 1-2
9
Final
Air Force
AF · 2-1
14
Final
Model called it
Spread
AF -3.5
Moneyline
NAVY +126 / AF -152
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
67.8°F · 7 mph · Clear
Venue
Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
NAVY 9 / AF 14
From the booth
The model favored AF to win, and the call landed.
Navy comes in on a 2-game slide after dropping a road test to UAB, while the Falcons rolled Nevada 36-33 on the road. Air Force is laying 3.5 points, and our model backs the Falcons at 61%, leaning on their defensive efficiency and market confidence. Navy's point differential over time keeps this closer than the spread might suggest.
Why the model leans AF
- Favors Air Force: AF+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Navy: NAVY+0.01Point differential, last 5 games
- Favors Air Force: AF+0.01Betting-market win probability