Week 4 slate
Week 4Sat, Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ETCenter Parc Stadium, AtlantaFinal
Northern Illinois
NIU · 0-3
14
Final
Georgia State
GAST · 2-1
35
Final
Model called it
Spread
GAST -10.5
Moneyline
NIU +330 / GAST -430
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ET
Final
NIU 14 / GAST 35
From the booth
The model favored GAST to win, and the call landed.
Georgia State's looking like the team to beat here at 73% to win, and the Vegas market is backing that up with the Panthers favored by ten and a half. What's driving this is the betting market's confidence in the home team, but here's the thing, Northern Illinois comes in with some real defensive punch, having allowed fewer EPA per play over their last five games. Still, Georgia State's got enough offensive firepower to get the job done at home, and that's why the model likes them in this one.
Why the model leans GAST
- Favors Georgia State: GAST+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Georgia State: GAST+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Northern Illinois: NIUDefensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games