Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETDowdy-Ficklen Stadium, GreenvilleFinal
App State
APP · 1-0
27
Final
East Carolina
ECU · 0-1
24
Final
Model missed
Spread
ECU -6.5
Moneyline
APP +195 / ECU -240
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
83°F · 6.5 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
APP 27 / ECU 24
From the booth
The model favored ECU to win, and the call missed.
East Carolina's looking at a 70 percent win probability here, and the model likes the Pirates at home with a solid 6.5 point spread backing that up. ECU's been more efficient on offense over their last five games, and the betting market is giving them the edge, though App State's actually been stingy on defense lately. This is shaping up as a pretty comfortable home setup for the Pirates, but Appalachian State's got just enough juice to make it interesting.
Why the model leans ECU
- Favors East Carolina: ECU+0.04Betting-market win probability
- Favors App State: APP+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors East Carolina: ECUOffensive EPA/play, last 5 games