Week 1 slate
Week 1Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling GreenFinal
Tarleton State
TAR · 0-0
20
Final
Bowling Green
BGSU · 0-0
13
Final
Model missed
Spread
BGSU -2.5
Moneyline
TAR +106 / BGSU -128
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
Final
TAR 20 / BGSU 13
From the booth
The model favored BGSU to win, and the call missed.
Bowling Green's the favorite here at 66 percent to win, and it's pretty straightforward why. Yeah, Vegas has got Tarleton laying right around two and a half points, but the Falcons have been the sharper team over their last five games with better offensive efficiency and they've got the overall rating advantage. It's not a huge edge, but it's enough to make Bowling Green the pick in this one.
Why the model leans BGSU
- Favors Tarleton State: TAR+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors Bowling Green: BGSU+0.04Point differential, last 5 games
- Favors Bowling Green: BGSU+0.03Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games