Week 3 slate
Week 3Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ETWilliams Stadium (VA), LynchburgFinal
Ball State
BALL · 1-1
15
Final
Liberty
LIB · 1-1
51
Final
Model called it
Spread
LIB -14.5
Moneyline
BALL +480 / LIB -690
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET
Final
BALL 15 / LIB 51
From the booth
The model favored LIB to win, and the call landed.
Liberty's got this one locked up at 90 percent, and it's not even close. The Flames are getting a massive 14-point-and-a-half from Vegas, and the betting market's backing that up too. Ball State's gonna need something special here because Liberty's simply the better team over these last five games, even though the Cardinals have had a slight edge in offensive efficiency. This one's Liberty's to lose.
Why the model leans LIB
- Favors Liberty: LIB+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors Liberty: LIB+0.03Betting-market win probability
- Favors Liberty: LIB+0.01Point differential, last 5 games