Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 1:00 PM ETUB Stadium, AmherstConference gameFinal
Western Michigan
WMU · 2-2
20
Final
Buffalo
BUF · 2-2
17
Final
Model called it
Spread
WMU -12.5
Moneyline
WMU -535 / BUF +400
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
61.3°F · 7.5 mph · Clear
Venue
UB Stadium · Amherst
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
WMU 20 / BUF 17
From the booth
The model favored WMU to win, and the call landed.
Buffalo scraped past Robert Morris 31-28 at home, but the Bulls are allowing 38.7 points over their last 3 games. Western Michigan dropped to Boise State 32-7 but shows real separation in efficiency, averaging 28 points and giving up just 22.3 over the same stretch. The model backs the Broncos at 75%, well ahead of the market laying 12.5.
Why the model leans WMU
- Favors Western Michigan: WMU+0.18Vegas point spread
- Favors Western Michigan: WMU+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Western Michigan: WMU+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge