Week 6 slate
Week 6Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETGlass Bowl, ToledoConference gameFinal
Buffalo
BUF · 2-3
23
Final
Toledo
TOL · 4-1
8
Final
Model missed
Spread
TOL -18.5
Moneyline
BUF +700 / TOL -1100
Total
O/U 55.5
Weather
76.3°F · 10.6 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Glass Bowl · Toledo
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
BUF 23 / TOL 8
From the booth
The model favored TOL to win, and the call missed.
Toledo rolls into this conference matchup on a 4-game winning streak after beating Ball State 39-24 on the road, while Buffalo limps in at 2-3 fresh off a 3-point home loss to Western Michigan. The Rockets are explosive, averaging 43 points over their last 3, and the model loves Toledo at 95%, well beyond what an 18.5-point spread implies. The market and defensive efficiency back the pick, and the Rockets' point differential over the last 5 is the real separator here.
Why the model leans TOL
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.07Vegas point spread
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors Toledo: TOL+0.01Point differential, last 5 games