Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETYager Stadium, OxfordConference gameFinal
Bowling Green
BGSU · 0-4
24
Final
Miami (OH)
M-OH · 2-2
20
Final
Model missed
Spread
M-OH -12.5
Moneyline
BGSU +380 / M-OH -500
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
66.2°F · 11.1 mph · Clear
Venue
Yager Stadium · Oxford
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
BGSU 24 / M-OH 20
From the booth
The model favored M-OH to win, and the call missed.
Bowling Green comes in winless and struggling to score, while Miami sits at 2-2 off a home win over UConn. The Falcons have been outscored 41.7 to 6.7 over their last 3 games, a total collapse on both sides of the ball. Our model has Miami at 83%, well ahead of the market's 12.5-point line, backed by the RedHawks' efficiency edge and point differential advantage.
Why the model leans M-OH
- Favors Miami (OH): M-OH+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors Miami (OH): M-OH+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Miami (OH): M-OH+0.02Point differential, last 5 games