Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ETVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL), TroyFinal
Alabama State
ALST · 0-0
17
Final
Troy
TROY · 1-0
34
Final
Model called it
Spread
TROY -23.5
Moneyline
ALST +1000 / TROY -2100
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
86.5°F · 5.4 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Venue
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET
Final
ALST 17 / TROY 34
From the booth
The model favored TROY to win, and the call landed.
Troy's got this one locked down at 97 percent to win, and there's not much mystery why. The Trojans are nearly a field goal and a half better than Alabama State on the Vegas number, they've got the superior Elo rating, and they've been rolling in their last five games. Alabama State's looking at just a 3 percent shot here, so unless something goes completely sideways, Troy should handle their business at home.
Why the model leans TROY
- Favors Troy: TROY+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Troy: TROY+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors Troy: TROY+0.01Team rating (Elo) edge