Week 6 slate
Week 6Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ETCentennial Bank Stadium, JonesboroPrime timeConference gameFinal
South Alabama
USA · 3-2
56
Final
Arkansas State
ARST · 2-3
49
Final
Model called it
Spread
ARST -2.5
Moneyline
USA +116 / ARST -140
Total
O/U 59.5
Weather
84.7°F · 7 mph · Clear
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro
Kickoff
Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
Final
USA 56 / ARST 49
From the booth
The model favored USA to win, and the call landed.
Thursday night in the Sun Belt, and Arkansas State just dropped a road game to Louisiana 23-20. South Alabama comes in hot off a 52-35 win at home, but the Red Wolves are favored by 2.5 at Centennial Bank Stadium. Our model leans South Alabama at 53%, banking on the Jaguars' offensive efficiency and point differential over their last 5 games, even though the market likes the home team.
Why the model leans USA
- Favors Arkansas State: ARST+0.12Vegas point spread
- Favors South Alabama: USA+0.02Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games
- Favors South Alabama: USA+0.02Point differential, last 5 games