Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETCenter Parc Stadium, AtlantaConference gameFinal
Old Dominion
ODU · 1-3
10
Final
Georgia State
GAST · 3-1
42
Final
Model called it
Spread
GAST -2.5
Moneyline
ODU +108 / GAST -130
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
83.2°F · 4.3 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Final
ODU 10 / GAST 42
From the booth
The model favored GAST to win, and the call landed.
Georgia State hosts Old Dominion in a Sun Belt matchup where the Panthers have surged and the Monarchs have collapsed. Georgia State just throttled Northern Illinois 35-14 at home and is averaging 32 points over its last 3 games, while Old Dominion has lost 3 straight and is getting torched on defense, allowing 36.7 per game. Our model favors the Panthers at 58%, aligned with a market laying 2.5 points on the home team.
Why the model leans GAST
- Favors Georgia State: GAST+0.11Vegas point spread
- Favors Georgia State: GAST+0.04Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games
- Favors Old Dominion: ODUPoint differential, last 5 games