Week 1 slate
Week 1Sat, Sep 5 · 9:00 PM ETAggie Memorial Stadium, Las CrucesPrime timeFinal
Mercyhurst
MERC · 0-0
14
Final
New Mexico State
NMSU · 0-1
51
Final
Model called it
Spread
NMSU -28.5
Moneyline
MERC +2400 / NMSU -10000
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
N/A
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5 · 9:00 PM ET
Final
MERC 14 / NMSU 51
From the booth
The model favored NMSU to win, and the call landed.
New Mexico State comes in as a massive favorite at 98 percent to win this one, and it's not even close. Vegas has the Aggies laying 28 and a half points, the betting markets agree they're the far superior team, and when you look at the film from their last five games, they're outperforming on both sides of the ball. Mercyhurst's got their work cut out for them, plain and simple.
Why the model leans NMSU
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.01Betting-market win probability
- Favors New Mexico State: NMSU+0.00Offensive EPA/play, last 5 games