Week 2 slate
Week 2Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ETPlaster Sports Complex, SpringfieldPrime timeFinal
Lindenwood
LIN · 0-0
14
Final
Missouri State
MOST · 0-1
48
Final
Model called it
Spread
MOST -16.5
Moneyline
LIN +640 / MOST -1000
Total
O/U 53.5
Weather
83.7°F · 9.1 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Plaster Sports Complex · Springfield
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET
Final
LIN 14 / MOST 48
From the booth
The model favored MOST to win, and the call landed.
Missouri State's got this one locked up at 94 percent to win, and it really comes down to the talent gap here. The Bears are favored by 16 and a half points on the Vegas board, they've got a clear edge in team strength, and their defense has been stingy over the last five games. Lindenwood's gonna need to find some magic at 6 percent, but this is Missouri State's game to lose.
Why the model leans MOST
- Favors Missouri State: MOST+0.06Vegas point spread
- Favors Missouri State: MOST+0.02Betting-market win probability
- Favors Missouri State: MOST+0.02Team rating (Elo) edge