Week 5 slate
Week 5Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ETHancock Whitney Stadium, MobilePrime timeConference gameFinal
UL Monroe
ULM · 0-4
35
Final
South Alabama
USA · 2-2
52
Final
Model called it
Spread
USA -13.5
Moneyline
ULM +460 / USA -650
Total
O/U 56.5
Weather
78.5°F · 7.1 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Venue
Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
Final
ULM 35 / USA 52
From the booth
The model favored USA to win, and the call landed.
South Alabama hosts UL Monroe in a Sun Belt matchup, but the Jaguars are reeling after a 45-21 blowout loss to Kentucky. The Warhawks sit 0-4 and have dropped 4 straight. Our model has South Alabama at 84%, well ahead of the market laying 13.5 points, leaning on the Jaguars' offensive efficiency and point differential over the longer view.
Why the model leans USA
- Favors South Alabama: USA+0.05Betting-market win probability
- Favors South Alabama: USA+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors South Alabama: USA+0.01Point differential, last 5 games