Week 1 slate
Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ETNRG Stadium, HoustonFinal
Bills
BUF · 0-0
36
Final
Texans
HOU · 0-0
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
BUF -1.5
Moneyline
BUF -112 / HOU -108
Total
O/U 44.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
NRG Stadium · Houston
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
BUF 36 / HOU 31
From the booth
The model favored BUF to win, and the call landed.
The Buffalo Bills are favored in this one, folks, and they're getting it done with a 62 percent win probability over Houston. The Bills' defense has been absolutely stout over their last five games, they've got the superior team rating, and Vegas has them laying a point and a half for a reason. The Texans are gonna need everything to go right at home if they're gonna pull off this upset. That's a 38 percent shot for Houston, but don't sleep on that NRG Stadium advantage.
Why the model leans BUF
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.03Team rating (Elo) edge