Week 2 slate
Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · 4:25 PM ETLevi's Stadium, Santa ClaraFinal
Dolphins
MIA · 0-1
13
Final
49ers
SF · 1-0
35
Final
Model called it
Spread
SF -13.5
Moneyline
MIA +625 / SF -950
Total
O/U 44.5
Weather
68.9°F · 6.4 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 4:25 PM ET
Final
MIA 13 / SF 35
From the booth
The model favored SF to win, and the call landed.
The San Francisco 49ers are favored in this one, and they should be. The model's got them at 73 percent to win, and it really comes down to what we're seeing in the betting markets and Vegas, which both heavily favor the home team. Miami's got a slight edge in turnover differential over the last three games, but the 49ers' recent point differential and that 13 and a half point spread just tell you everything you need to know about where the smart money is.
Why the model leans SF
- Favors 49ers: SF+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors 49ers: SF+0.09Vegas point spread
- Favors Dolphins: MIA+0.04Turnover differential, last 3 games