Week 3 slate
Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ETMaracana StadiumNeutral siteFinal
Ravens
BAL · 1-1
34
Final
Cowboys
DAL · 1-1
31
Final
Model called it
Spread
BAL -3.5
Moneyline
BAL -170 / DAL +142
Total
O/U 53.5
Weather
74.3°F · 7.4 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Venue
Maracana Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
Final
BAL 34 / DAL 31
From the booth
The model favored BAL to win, and the call landed.
The Baltimore Ravens are heavily favored in this one, sitting at a 69% win probability on the road in Dallas. The market's really got them pegged here, the betting side and Vegas both agreeing the Ravens should win, and they've got the better Elo rating to back it up. The Cowboys' defense has tightened up a bit over the last five games, but it's not nearly enough to overcome Baltimore's overall advantage. This is a Ravens lean all the way, plain and simple.
Why the model leans BAL
- Favors Ravens: BAL+0.11Betting-market win probability
- Favors Ravens: BAL+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Ravens: BAL+0.03Team rating (Elo) edge