Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETNRG Stadium, HoustonFinal
Cowboys
DAL · 1-2
34
Final
Texans
HOU · 0-3
30
Final
Model missed
Spread
HOU -3
Moneyline
DAL +124 / HOU -148
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
NRG Stadium · Houston
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
DAL 34 / HOU 30
From the booth
The model favored HOU to win, and the call missed.
Both teams are struggling, but the Texans get the nod at home. Houston's 0-3 and leaking points, while Dallas limps in at 1-2 after a close loss at a neutral site. Our model has the Texans at 59%, though the market is only laying 3 points, suggesting some skepticism about Houston's defensive depth with Al-Shaair and Stewart out.
Why the model leans HOU
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Cowboys: DAL+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.02Team rating (Elo) edge