Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ETLevi's Stadium, Santa ClaraFinal
Broncos
DEN · 2-1
14
Final
49ers
SF · 3-0
24
Final
Model called it
Spread
SF -3
Moneyline
DEN +124 / SF -148
Total
O/U 48.5
Weather
87.5°F · 4.3 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
Final
DEN 14 / SF 24
From the booth
The model favored SF to win, and the call landed.
San Francisco's 3-0 start has been dominant, averaging 32.7 points while holding opponents to 16.7 over the last 3 games. Denver comes in hot with 2 straight wins but sits at just 20.0 points per game. The model gives the 49ers 57%, in line with a market making them 3-point favorites, though the Broncos' injury losses give Denver some structural headwinds here.
Why the model leans SF
- Favors 49ers: SF+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Broncos: DEN+0.03Overall injury burden
- Favors 49ers: SF+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games