Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETRaymond James Stadium, TampaFinal
Packers
GB · 1-2
17
Final
Buccaneers
TB · 0-3
14
Final
Model called it
Spread
GB -3
Moneyline
GB -166 / TB +140
Total
O/U 38.5
Weather
87.8°F · 8.5 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
GB 17 / TB 14
From the booth
The model favored GB to win, and the call landed.
Green Bay and Tampa Bay meet in an NFC matchup where the Buccaneers are reeling at 0-3 and the Packers sit at 1-2 after a tough home loss. Our model likes the Packers at 72%, aligned with a market favoring them by 3 points. Green Bay has the edge in season-long strength and defensive efficiency, though both offenses are struggling to move the ball right now. Tampa Bay will be without Baker Mayfield, which compounds an already brutal start.
Why the model leans GB
- Favors Packers: GB+0.09Betting-market win probability
- Favors Packers: GB+0.05Vegas point spread
- Favors Packers: GB+0.02Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games