Week 4 slate
Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETPaycor Stadium, CincinnatiFinal
Jaguars
JAX · 2-1
22
Final
Bengals
CIN · 2-1
17
Final
Model missed
Spread
CIN -2.5
Moneyline
JAX +120 / CIN -142
Total
O/U 51.5
Weather
70.9°F · 3.3 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
JAX 22 / CIN 17
From the booth
The model favored CIN to win, and the call missed.
Cincinnati hosts Jacksonville in an AFC matchup where these teams split their season series. The Bengals took the last one 31-27, but Jacksonville is rolling, beating the Patriots 35-6 at home with a dominant defense allowing just 12 points over the last 3 games. Our model goes Bengals at 53%, a tick more confident than the market favoring Cincinnati by 2.5 points, though Jacksonville's team strength and overall health give the Jaguars real punch.
Why the model leans CIN
- Favors Bengals: CIN+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.03Team rating (Elo) edge
- Favors Jaguars: JAX+0.03Overall injury burden