Week 4 slate
Week 4Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ETHuntington Bank Field, ClevelandPrime timeDivisionalFinal
Steelers
PIT · 2-1
24
Final
Browns
CLE · 2-1
27
Final
Model missed
Spread
PIT -2.5
Moneyline
PIT -148 / CLE +124
Total
O/U 38.5
Weather
76.4°F · 13.8 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland
Kickoff
Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET
Final
PIT 24 / CLE 27
From the booth
The model favored PIT to win, and the call missed.
The Steelers are favored here, and they're getting it from the betting market and Vegas, who both like Pittsburgh in this one. The model's got the Steelers at 62 percent, with their overall talent edge showing up in that Elo rating. The Browns' defense has tightened up over the last five games, which keeps this from being a complete runaway, but it's not enough to flip the script. You're looking at a two and a half point Vegas spread, and Pittsburgh's got all the momentum heading into Cleveland.
Why the model leans PIT
- Favors Steelers: PIT+0.10Betting-market win probability
- Favors Steelers: PIT+0.04Vegas point spread
- Favors Steelers: PITTeam rating (Elo) edge