Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ETMercedes-Benz Stadium, AtlantaPrime timeFinal
Ravens
BAL · 3-1
30
Final
Falcons
ATL · 2-2
23
Final
Model missed
Spread
ATL -3
Moneyline
BAL +145 / ATL -175
Total
O/U 43.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
Final
BAL 30 / ATL 23
From the booth
The model favored ATL to win, and the call missed.
Sunday night in Atlanta, and the Falcons have won 2 straight after torching the Saints 45-24. The Ravens are also riding momentum at 3-1, but Lamar Jackson is out, along with key pieces on both sides of the ball. Our model leans Falcons at 58%, and the market agrees, laying 3 points at home. Atlanta's injury situation looks better, and that's enough to give them the edge here.
Why the model leans ATL
- Favors Falcons: ATL+0.08Betting-market win probability
- Favors Falcons: ATL+0.04Overall injury burden
- Favors Ravens: BAL+0.04Turnover differential, last 3 games