Week 5 slate
Week 5Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ETSoFi Stadium, InglewoodPrime timeFinal
Bills
BUF · 3-1
37
Final
Rams
LAR · 2-2
34
Final
Model missed
Spread
LAR -3.5
Moneyline
BUF +150 / LAR -180
Total
O/U 54.5
Weather
Dome · controlled
Venue
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood
Kickoff
Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Final
BUF 37 / LAR 34
From the booth
The model favored LAR to win, and the call missed.
Monday night at SoFi, the Bills come in 3-1 but just dropped one to the Patriots 29-26 at home. The Rams have won their last 2, including a road upset over the Eagles. Our model edges the Rams at 54%, slight disagreement with a market laying 3.5 points, which gives the nod to Los Angeles. The betting market favors the Rams, but Buffalo's season-long strength rating and recent defensive form keep this one tight despite losing Joshua Palmer and Ed Oliver.
Why the model leans LAR
- Favors Rams: LAR+0.07Betting-market win probability
- Favors Bills: BUF+0.04Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Bills: BUFTeam rating (Elo) edge