Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ETNissan Stadium, NashvilleDivisionalFinal
Texans
HOU · 0-4
26
Final
Titans
TEN · 0-4
3
Final
Model called it
Spread
HOU -7
Moneyline
HOU -345 / TEN +275
Total
O/U 37.5
Weather
66.5°F · 11 mph · Partially cloudy
Venue
Nissan Stadium · Nashville
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Final
HOU 26 / TEN 3
From the booth
The model favored HOU to win, and the call landed.
Division matchup in Nashville, and both teams are 0-4, but the Texans have the edge in turnover margin over the last 3 games. Houston is favored by 7, and our model backs that, putting the Texans at 68% to win. The Titans have lost 4 straight and are yielding 20 points a game lately, while the Texans offense has shown more punch despite their own rough stretch.
Why the model leans HOU
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.12Betting-market win probability
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.06Vegas point spread
- Favors Texans: HOU+0.02Turnover differential, last 3 games