Week 5 slate
Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ETLumen Field, SeattleDivisionalFinal
49ers
SF · 4-0
32
Final
Seahawks
SEA · 3-1
29
Final
Model missed
Spread
SEA -3
Moneyline
SF +136 / SEA -162
Total
O/U 45.5
Weather
55.8°F · 10.6 mph · Clear
Venue
Lumen Field · Seattle
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
Final
SF 32 / SEA 29
From the booth
The model favored SEA to win, and the call missed.
NFC West heavyweight clash Sunday at Lumen Field, and the 49ers roll in undefeated at 4-0. Seattle's 3-1 and coming off a 30-23 win over the Chargers, but San Francisco is averaging 31.7 points and allowing just 19.0 over their last 3. Our model leans Seahawks at 56%, and the market agrees, laying 3 points at home, though the 49ers' defensive efficiency gives them more theoretical juice than Vegas is pricing.
Why the model leans SEA
- Favors Seahawks: SEA+0.06Betting-market win probability
- Favors 49ers: SF+0.03Defensive EPA/play allowed, last 5 games
- Favors Seahawks: SEA+0.02Vegas point spread